{"id":1352,"date":"2021-01-04T03:01:43","date_gmt":"2021-01-04T00:01:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/sektorturk.com\/?p=1352"},"modified":"2021-01-04T03:01:47","modified_gmt":"2021-01-04T00:01:47","slug":"gsyh-3-ceyrekte-beklentilerin-cok-uzerinde-toparlandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tr.sektorturk.com\/?p=1352","title":{"rendered":"GSYH 3. \u00e7eyrekte beklentilerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde toparland\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>GSYH, \u015fimdiden salg\u0131n \u00f6ncesi seviyelerinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.&nbsp;<\/strong>T\u00dc\u0130K, GSYH\u2019nin 3\u00c720\u2019de %5,0-5,5\u2019lik piyasa beklentileri ve bizim %4,2\u2019lik beklentimizin \u00fczerinde %6,7 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Takvim ve mevsim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f GSYH ise \u00e7eyreklik bazda %11,0 daralman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %16,2 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. GSYH b\u00f6ylece, salg\u0131n \u00f6ncesi seviyelerinin %3,4 kadar \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u0130\u00e7 talepteki canlanma turizm kaynakl\u0131 daralman\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.&nbsp;<\/strong>&nbsp;Kredi te\u015fviki kaynakl\u0131 i\u00e7 talep canlanmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n (beklentimize paralel) %9,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bunda da belirleyici fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn dayan\u0131kl\u0131 harcamalar\u0131ndaki %55 ve yar\u0131 dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal harcamalar\u0131ndaki %17\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu, hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc harcamalar\u0131ndaki %8\u2019lik daralman\u0131n ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda ise beklentilerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde %22\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ki, bunun b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizlere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ticari ara\u00e7 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Buna g\u00f6re, yat\u0131r\u0131mlardaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme trendinin kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin soru i\u015faretleri bulundu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar kalemindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine %5,2\u2019lik bir katk\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmek laz\u0131m. \u00d6te yandan, mal ve hizmet ihracat\u0131n\u0131n %22 darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor, ki bu da tamamen turizm gelirlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kaynaklan\u0131yor. \u0130\u00e7 talepteki canlanmayla mal ve hizmet ithalat\u0131n\u0131n ise %16 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Buna g\u00f6re, net d\u0131\u015f talebin GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini %9,1 gibi ciddi bir oranda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye %0,1\u2019lik \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir katk\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu sonu\u00e7lara g\u00f6re, stoklardaki de\u011fi\u015fimin (stok biriktirme e\u011filiminin) de GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine %5,1\u2019lik bir katk\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2020 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %1,0\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/strong><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong>\u00d6zetle, turizm kaynakl\u0131 ekonomik aktivitedeki ciddi daralmaya kar\u015f\u0131n, kredi te\u015fvikli i\u00e7 talep sayesinde, GSYH\u2019nin salg\u0131n \u00f6ncesi seviyelerini \u015fimdiden a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ancak bunun TL\u2019de h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ve faizlerde art\u0131\u015f gibi ciddi bir maliyet ile ba\u015far\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da dikkate almak gerekiyor. TL\u2019deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ve parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, i\u00e7 talepte \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde kayda de\u011fer bir yava\u015flama (gerileme) bekliyoruz. \u00d6te yandan, elektrik t\u00fcketimi, kapasite kullan\u0131m\u0131, imalat PMI ve ihracat\/ithalat rakamlar\u0131 ile birlikte haftal\u0131k yay\u0131nlanan kredi kart\u0131 harcamalar\u0131 hen\u00fcz b\u00f6yle bir yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret etmiyor. Buna g\u00f6re, eldeki rakamlarla 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %1,0\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu rakam\u0131n, salg\u0131n\u0131n ilk aylar\u0131nda hi\u00e7 de ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i g\u00f6r\u00fcnmedi\u011fini belirtmek laz\u0131m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2020\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmede beklenenden h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanma 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/strong>\u00a0Salg\u0131n sonras\u0131 toparlanman\u0131n, ilk beklentilerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak da 2021 i\u00e7in daha \u00f6nce \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz olumlu baz etkisinin, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ve d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekler i\u00e7in ortadan kalkt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. 2021\u2019in \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde hakim olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fimiz y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131 ile birle\u015fti\u011finde,\u00a0<strong>2021 y\u0131l\u0131 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %2,0-2,5 civar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/strong>\u00a0Ancak bu tahmini her iki y\u00f6nde de etkileyebilecek ciddi belirsizlikler oldu\u011funu da not etmek laz\u0131m. \u00d6ncelikle, salg\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fimi ve a\u015f\u0131 haberleri en kritik konular olmaya devam ederken, bu taraftaki olumlu geli\u015fmelerle turizm ve ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde \u00f6rne\u011fin 2019 seviyelerine geri d\u00f6n\u00fclebilirse, bu tahmin \u00fczerinde ciddi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilir. \u00d6te yandan, TL\u2019deki istikrar da GSYH \u00fczerinde belirleyici olmaya devam edecek. TL\u2019de 2021\u2019de ek de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131 ya\u015fanmas\u0131 durumunda, GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin hi\u00e7 arzu edilmeyen noktalara da gidebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"440\" height=\"301\" src=\"http:\/\/sektorturk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/gedikyatirim-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1354\"\/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>GSYH, \u015fimdiden salg\u0131n \u00f6ncesi seviyelerinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.&nbsp;T\u00dc\u0130K, GSYH\u2019nin 3\u00c720\u2019de %5,0-5,5\u2019lik piyasa beklentileri ve bizim %4,2\u2019lik beklentimizin \u00fczerinde %6,7 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Takvim ve mevsim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f GSYH ise \u00e7eyreklik bazda %11,0 daralman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %16,2 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. GSYH b\u00f6ylece, salg\u0131n \u00f6ncesi seviyelerinin %3,4 kadar \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130\u00e7 talepteki canlanma turizm kaynakl\u0131 daralman\u0131n \u00e7ok \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.&nbsp;&nbsp;Kredi te\u015fviki kaynakl\u0131 i\u00e7 talep canlanmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n (beklentimize paralel) %9,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bunda da belirleyici fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn dayan\u0131kl\u0131 harcamalar\u0131ndaki %55 ve yar\u0131 dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal harcamalar\u0131ndaki %17\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu, hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc harcamalar\u0131ndaki %8\u2019lik daralman\u0131n ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda ise beklentilerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde %22\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ki, bunun b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizlere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ticari ara\u00e7 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Buna g\u00f6re, yat\u0131r\u0131mlardaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme trendinin kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin soru i\u015faretleri bulundu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar kalemindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine %5,2\u2019lik bir katk\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmek laz\u0131m. \u00d6te yandan, mal ve hizmet ihracat\u0131n\u0131n %22 darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor, ki bu da tamamen turizm gelirlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kaynaklan\u0131yor. \u0130\u00e7 talepteki canlanmayla mal ve hizmet ithalat\u0131n\u0131n ise %16 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Buna g\u00f6re, net d\u0131\u015f talebin GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini %9,1 gibi ciddi bir oranda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye %0,1\u2019lik \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir katk\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu sonu\u00e7lara g\u00f6re, stoklardaki de\u011fi\u015fimin (stok biriktirme e\u011filiminin) de GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine %5,1\u2019lik bir katk\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. 2020 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %1,0\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.&nbsp;\u00d6zetle, turizm kaynakl\u0131 ekonomik aktivitedeki ciddi daralmaya kar\u015f\u0131n, kredi te\u015fvikli i\u00e7 talep sayesinde, GSYH\u2019nin salg\u0131n \u00f6ncesi seviyelerini \u015fimdiden a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ancak bunun TL\u2019de h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ve faizlerde art\u0131\u015f gibi ciddi bir maliyet ile ba\u015far\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da dikkate almak gerekiyor. TL\u2019deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ve parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, i\u00e7 talepte \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde kayda de\u011fer bir yava\u015flama (gerileme) bekliyoruz. \u00d6te yandan, elektrik t\u00fcketimi, kapasite kullan\u0131m\u0131, imalat PMI ve ihracat\/ithalat rakamlar\u0131 ile birlikte haftal\u0131k yay\u0131nlanan kredi kart\u0131 harcamalar\u0131 hen\u00fcz b\u00f6yle bir yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret etmiyor. Buna g\u00f6re, eldeki rakamlarla 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %1,0\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu rakam\u0131n, salg\u0131n\u0131n ilk aylar\u0131nda hi\u00e7 de ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i g\u00f6r\u00fcnmedi\u011fini belirtmek laz\u0131m. 2020\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmede beklenenden h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanma 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.\u00a0Salg\u0131n sonras\u0131 toparlanman\u0131n, ilk beklentilerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak da 2021 i\u00e7in daha \u00f6nce \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz olumlu baz etkisinin, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ve d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekler i\u00e7in ortadan kalkt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. 2021\u2019in \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde hakim olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fimiz y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131 ile birle\u015fti\u011finde,\u00a02021 y\u0131l\u0131 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %2,0-2,5 civar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.\u00a0Ancak bu tahmini her iki y\u00f6nde de etkileyebilecek ciddi belirsizlikler oldu\u011funu da not etmek laz\u0131m. \u00d6ncelikle, salg\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fimi ve a\u015f\u0131 haberleri en kritik konular olmaya devam ederken, bu taraftaki olumlu geli\u015fmelerle turizm ve ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde \u00f6rne\u011fin 2019 seviyelerine geri d\u00f6n\u00fclebilirse, bu tahmin \u00fczerinde ciddi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilir. \u00d6te yandan, TL\u2019deki istikrar da GSYH \u00fczerinde belirleyici olmaya devam edecek. TL\u2019de 2021\u2019de ek de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131 ya\u015fanmas\u0131 durumunda, GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin hi\u00e7 arzu edilmeyen noktalara da gidebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1353,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1352","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-genel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tr.sektorturk.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1352","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tr.sektorturk.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tr.sektorturk.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tr.sektorturk.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tr.sektorturk.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1352"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/tr.sektorturk.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1352\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1355,"href":"https:\/\/tr.sektorturk.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1352\/revisions\/1355"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tr.sektorturk.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1353"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tr.sektorturk.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1352"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tr.sektorturk.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1352"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tr.sektorturk.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1352"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}